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Each student has been allocated one of the 17 Eurozone members (apart from Ireland; see below
for your allocated country) and must cover the following points in their essay:
1. Debt dynamics in general: derive and use an equation to show how a debt dynamic can be set
in motion and how it can be stabilised.
2. The changes in the debt/GDP ratio of your allocated country since joining the Euro with a
particular focus on the years since the onset of the global financial crisis (2007-2012). You should
comment on the underlying factors that have driven any increase/decrease in the debt ratio of
your allocated country during this period.
3. The projected changes in the debt/GDP ratio of your allocated country for 2013-15. Where
your allocated country’s debt ratio is projected to increase (or decrease), you must use the debt
dynamics formula to calculate the primary budget balance that would be required in 2013 to
stabilise the debt/GDP ratio at its 2012 level.
4. In the context of your analysis above, briefly discuss the debt dynamic in motion in the
Eurozone as a whole and comment on the likely future developments in the overall Eurozone
debt ratio over the next few years.
Readings/Data:
Click here for the Stability and Convergence Programmes of each European country. The Stability
Programmes submitted by each country from 1998-2012 along with the Commission’s
assessment of each programme contain detailed information on the debt dynamics of each
country.
Click here for Eurostat’s most recent news release on Eurozone debt ratios, here for an overview
of Eurostat’s government finance statistics and here to access the raw data on debt ratios for
each country.
Click here for an article by the ESRI’s John FitzGerald and Ide Kearney on Irish Government Debt
and Implied Debt Dynamics 2011-2015. Section 4 of the paper is particularly useful in the context
of what you are required to analyse for each of your allocated countries.
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