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The writer must follow the instruction and go through and follow it as exactly mentioned.
1. Carry out a Trend Analysis
Horizon scan for possible trends (PESTLE factors) and consider how they might interact to create a problem or need in the future (say 2-10 years). You will need to consider:
• how the trends may interact to create a problem or need in the future. You may find it useful to use:
Theories and Laws – well established pattern of behaviour e.g. Moore’s Law
Trend extrapolation – continuing of trend in current trajectory
System diagram to show the likely patterns of behaviour and interaction of trends in the future
Qualitative predictions and opinions – based on expert judgment or key players
Scenarios to depict a future view that is more long term
• how reliability and validity of the trend data e.g. source of data, time, forecast intensions, methodological issues etc.
• how certain the future you envisage will happen and the speed with which it will arrive
2. Justify and critique your response or opportunity
Consider the action that you think would be appropriate to resolve the problems or needs that you have argued that the future presents either by justifying the action in terms of a:
• a private or social enterprise opportunity
or a
• response for a public or private sector: (e.g. new product or a service, policy, resource development
Use a structured approach such as:
Suitability, Acceptability, Feasibility (response), Timmons and Spinelli (opportunity), Longenecker (opportunity), Scenarios (both). Use of Strategic Management tools for external appraisal will also support your case where appropriate. (Any weaknesses in your opportunity/response may be expressed as ‘risks’.)
3. Present your findings in the form of a report
Structure: Include cover sheet, executive summary, contents, introduction, trend analysis, justification and critique/risks of response or opportunity, conclusion, reference list
Diagrams: Put relevant diagrams supporting trend analysis in the main body
Place strategic analysis in appendices and refer to in the main body
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